Spatiotemporal Evolution and Driving Forces of Carbon Decoupling in Tourism in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Abstract

Achieving decoupling between tourism economic growth and tourism carbon emissions is of paramount importance. This study innovatively integrates the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model—a tool for analyzing spatial heterogeneity—into the Tapio decoupling framework to examine the dynamic decoupling relationship between tourism growth and carbon emissions. It further investigates the driving factors behind decoupling evolution, their interactions, and precisely characterizes the mechanisms, directions, pathways, and intensities of these drivers. Key findings reveal an M-shaped fluctuation trend in tourism carbon emissions within the study area, with significant variations in emission shares across different tourism sectors and transportation modes. Spatially, carbon emissions exhibit heterogeneity and negative autocorrelation, where inter-regional disparities diminish while intra-regional disparities intensify. The tourism economic system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) transitioned through weak decoupling, expansive negative decoupling, and strong decoupling states, eventually stabilizing at weak decoupling. Regional decoupling states varied markedly, suggesting that some areas require exploration of new low-carbon development paradigms. For sustainable tourism development, policy-makers should prioritize the decoupling relationship between tourism emissions and economic growth. Region-specific policies must be formulated to facilitate low-carbon transitions, promote industrial upgrading, and enhance inter-regional collaboration—ultimately advancing sustainable tourism under carbon neutrality goals.