Identificação de investimentos em eficiência energética e sua avaliação de risco

Abstract

In order to achieve energy savings through improvements in energy efficiency, an energy diagnosis that shows the actual energy performance and determines the investments required is necessary. Nevertheless, the viability of these investments should be evaluated. The aim of this study is to adopt a method that involves two analyses: engineering analysis and risk analysis. Engineering analysis is conducted through the use of diagnostic tools to identify energy efficiency investments. Risk analysis enables the evaluation of the feasibility of these investments considering the uncertainty associated with the variables that determine energy savings and the effect on them, adapting the EBaR® approach through modeling and simulation. The method proposed was applied to a company in the Brazilian industrial sector and indicated that the company can reduce the consumption of non-production related energy by 60%, and that the investment proposed to improve energy efficiency is feasible since it has a good risk-return-ratio.