Multi-scenario comparison analysis on nuclear power development in China

Abstract

In the future, nuclear power will play a much greater role in promoting energy transition, and people are retrieving their confidence of nuclear power since Fukushima nuclear accident. However, there're many parameters will affect nuclear power development scale. In view of nuclear power investment cost increase, policy constraint of nuclear power scale and power demand rise, this paper has done sensitivity analysis on relevant indexes, such as such as power supply structure and distribution, power generation, power flow, environmental benefits and regional nuclear plant sites resource utilization rate, by use of a multi-region multi-scenario medium and long-term electric power planning model. The result shows that, nuclear power cost, power demand, carbon tax and policy guidance will affect future development scale of nuclear power.