Divorce Risk Factors Across Finnish Marriage cohorts, 1954-1989

Abstract

This paper examines whether there has been a change in the effects of three divorce risk factors, female educational attainment, cohabitation, and parity. Several theoretical reasons suggest such a change, but the existing evidence gives mixed results. First marriages of Finnish women married between 1954 and 1989 are analysed using data from the Fertility and Family Surveys (FFS), collected in 1989 and 1990. The results from the discrete-time event history models show that the effect of having children on marital stability has changed: the impact of having two children has become less evident, while the effect of having three children or more has increased. These trends hold after controlling for young children and premarital children. Some explanations for this shift are discussed.