Does a Spoonful of Sugar Levy Help the Calories Go Down? An Analysis of the UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy

Abstract

This study evaluates the effects of the 2018 UK Soft Drinks Industry Levy. We combine novel electronic point-of-sale data with longitudinal nutritional information and a variety of event-study specifications. All but a few global soft drink brands reduced sugar content and hence avoided the tiered levy. For brands that maintained their recipes, the levy was on average overshifted, resulting in substantial retail price increases and reductions in consumption, particularly for colas. The levy is responsible for a reduction in intake of about 6,600 calories per year per UK resident, 80% of which is attributable to reformulation by manufacturers.