A dynamic approach to population change in central cities and their suburbs, 1980-1990: Crime, employment, and spatial proximity

Abstract

With the growing concern over the causal relationship between crime and population change, this study readdresses the importance of economic organization in studying population change in a metropolitan area. This study investigates the dynamic influences of internal and external factors on population change in either central cities or their suburbs. The units of analysis in this study are the 142 U.S. central cities and their suburban rings of Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in 1980 and 1990. Two change models (semi-difference and mixed-difference models) are used to predict population change. The results demonstrate that population change in one territory of a metropolitan area is affected by crime and employment opportunity in both locations of a metropolitan area. © 2005 American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Inc.