Modeling the climate response to a massive methane release from gas hydrates

Abstract

The climate response to a massive release of methane from gas hydrates is simulated in two 2500-year-long numerical experiments performed with a three-dimensional, global coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean model of intermediate complexity. Two different equilibrium states were used as reference climates; the first state with preindustrial forcing conditions and the second state with a four times higher atmospheric CO2 concentration. These climates were perturbed by prescribing a methane emission scenario equivalent to that computed for the Paleocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM; ∼55.5 Ma), involving a sudden release of 1500 Gt of carbon into the atmosphere in 1000 years. In both cases, this produced rapid atmospheric warming (up to 10°C at high latitudes) and a reorganization of the global overturning ocean circulation. In the ocean, maximum warming (2-4°C) occurred at intermediate depths where methane hydrates are stored in the upper slope sediments, suggesting that further hydrate instability could result from the prescribed scenario. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.