The influence of meteorological factors on rockfall in the Moravskoslezské Beskydy Mts

Abstract

Rockfall rate (RR) series for four sites in the Moravskoslezské Beskydy Mountains (Smrk1, Smrk2, Ropice and Satina) were created for the period 1931-2008, using a dendrogeomorphic approach. Meteorological stations from the immediate area were also selected to study the influence of meteorological factors on rockfall. Monthly, seasonal, and annual mean air temperatures (TM), number of days with transitions of temperatures through 0 °C (Tr0) and precipitation totals (Pr) were used for this analysis. Despite the complexity of the rockfall process, uncertainty in the development of RR series and uncertainty in local meteorological patterns, there exist statistically significant correlation coefficients between RR series and meteorological variables. Multiple stepwise linear regression allows explanation of up to 43% (Satina in 1975-2008) of the RR variability by meteorological factors. Tr0, followed by TM, are the most important factors, while the influence of Pr was demonstrated only randomly.