Probabilistic adaptive model predictive power pinch analysis (PoPA) energy management approach to uncertainty

Abstract

This paper proposes a probabilistic power pinch analysis (PoPA) approach based on Monte–Carlo simulation (MCS) for energy management of hybrid energy systems uncertainty. The systems power grand composite curve is formulated with the chance constraint method to consider load stochasticity. In a predictive control horizon, the power grand composite curve is shaped based on the pinch analysis approach. The robust energy management strategy effected in a control horizon is inferred from the likelihood of a bounded predicted power grand composite curve, violating the pinch. Furthermore, the response of the system using the energy management strategies (EMS) of the proposed method is evaluated against the day‐ahead (DA) and adaptive power pinch strategy.