Long-term monitoring using DNA sampling reveals the dire demographic status of the critically endangered Gobi bear

Abstract

Information about population demography is crucial for developing and implementing conservation measures. The brown bear in the Gobi desert of southwestern Mongolia (referred to as the Gobi bear) is one of the smallest and most isolated brown bear populations in the world. We conducted genetic sampling (n = 2660 samples collected) using hair corrals around feeding sites at 13 water sources during 2009, 2013, and 2017 to evaluate population size, survival, and population trend. Bears were identified using 13 microsatellite loci and one sex marker. We detected 51 unique individuals (15F and 36M) from our targeted surveys in 2009, 2013, and 2017. Based on capture–mark–recapture robust design, population estimates were 23 (95% CI: 21–32) in 2009, 28 (95% CI: 25–35) in 2013, and 31 (95% CI: 29-38) individuals in 2017. Spatial capture–recapture analysis suggested abundance was very low ((Formula presented.) = 27; 95% CI: 22–35), and there was no significant change from 2009 to 2017. The population density was 0.93 bears/1000 km2 (95% CI: 0.74–1.17). Our population estimates suggested a stable population trend. However, the population is still very small, and the sex ratio is skewed toward males, raising concerns for future persistence. Annual survival based on Robust design CMR was 0.85. Low abundance and apparent survival for both sexes in this unhunted population coupled with a skewed sex ratio highlight the need for on-the-ground conservation action to conserve this isolated population of bears.