A fuzzy-ahp methodology for planning the risk management of natural hazards in surface mining projects

Abstract

Surface mining projects are vulnerable to natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, soil instabilities, and epidemic crises) which constitute the primary source of risks which affect the mining operations. In the framework of sustainable planning and development of such projects, the investigation of risk impacts is essential for taking the appropriate preventive measures before disastrous events appear in a mine. This paper proposes a methodology for the risk assessment of natural hazards in surface mining projects using the triangular Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) for the determination of the probability of risk occurrence, combined with the Expected Value (EV) function, the Monte Carlo simulation, and the Program Evaluation Review Technique PERT method for making predictions of cost and time overruns. A case study of a hazardous event with impacts in the operations of a surface mine demonstrates the methodology as a flexible and low-cost tool for mining executives. This tool is useful in the planning stage of pre-disaster management projects in the mineral industry, considering mine sustainability views. The research work also investigates critical technical and economic aspects.