Association of a State Prescribing Limits Policy with Opioid Prescribing and Long-term Use: an Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Abstract

Background: Prescription opioids were a major initial driver of the opioid crisis. States have attempted to reduce overprescribing by enacting policies that limit opioid prescriptions, but the impacts of such policies on new prescribing and subsequent transitions to long-term use are not fully understood. Objective: To examine the association of implementation of a state prescribing limits policy with opioid prescribing and transitions to long-term opioid use. Design: Interrupted time series analyses assessing trends in new opioid prescriptions and long-term use before and after policy implementation. Patients: A total of 130,591 New Jersey Medicaid enrollees ages 18–64 who received an initial opioid prescription from January 2014 to December 2019. Interventions: New Jersey’s opioid prescribing limit policy implemented in March 2017. Main Measures: Total new opioid prescriptions, percentage of new prescriptions with >5 days’ supply, and transition to long-term opioid use, defined as having opioid supply on day 90 after the initial prescription. Key Results: Policy implementation was associated with a significant monthly increase in new opioid prescriptions of 0.86 per 10,000 enrollees, halving the pre-policy decline in the prescribing rate. Among new opioid prescriptions, the percentage with >5 days’ supply decreased by about 1 percentage point (−0.76 percentage points, 95% CI −0.89, −0.62) following policy implementation. However, policy implementation was associated with a significant monthly increase in the rate of initial prescriptions with supply on day 90 (9.95 per 10,000 new prescriptions, 95% CI 4.80, 15.11) that reversed the downward pre-implementation trend. Conclusions: The New Jersey policy was associated with a reduction in initial prescriptions with >5 days’ supply, but not with an overall decline in new opioid prescriptions or in the rate at which initial prescriptions led to long-term use. Given their only modest benefits, policymakers and clinicians should carefully weigh potential unintended consequences of strict prescribing limits.