Rainfall and Streamflow Trends in the Upper Maduru Oya Sub-watershed in Sri Lanka: A Comparative Study Using Different Statistical Methods

Abstract

Analysis of historical data on rainfall and streamflow provides useful information for water resources management in a river basin. The objective of this study was to assess the variations and trend analysis of rainfall and streamflow data in the upper Maduru Oya sub watershed in Sri Lanka during a 30 year period (1989 October to 2019 September) using daily rainfall data from two gauging locations (Padiyathalawa and Bibile) and daily average streamflow data from one gauging location (Padiyathalawa). Descriptive statistics were used to assess the variations. The Mann Kendal Trend Test (MK test) and Innovative Trend Analysis method (ITA) were used to analyze the trend, and Sen’s Slope Estimator was used to assess the magnitude of the trend. Based on the MK test, most of the rainfall trends obtained are in an increasing direction, and streamflow trends are in a decreasing direction. Rainfall trends found in Padiyathalawa are not statistically significant. Annual, First Inter Monsoon, March, and May time scales of rainfall showed significant upward trends at Bibile (p<0.1) while streamflow in January, April, and September showed significant negative trends (p<0.1) at Padiyathalawa. The results displayed by all three tests were in very good agreement for rainfall. ITA results showed similar trend types of 77%, 95% and 41% at Padiyathalawa and Bibile rainfall and streamflow, respectively. A significant positive (ρ<0.01) strong and lower correlation between the trend value of the ITA and the Z value of the MK test were found for rainfall and streamflow, respectively. Changes in rainfall are not sufficient to explain the observed trends in streamflow. Therefore, future research should be directed at the causal aspects of streamflow change in this watershed.