Drivers of European landscape change: stakeholders’ perspectives through Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping

Abstract

Understanding complex processes of landscape change is crucial to guide the development of future landscapes and land resources. Through Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping, we studied the processes of landscape change of six different environmental zones in Europe. Results show that landscapes are complex systems, with many interactions. Except for one, all regions show a strong decline in landscape quality. Dominant drivers are EU policy and the global economy, sometimes in conjunction with environmental drivers or the governance system. The process of change differs for all cases, through urbanisation or land abandonment in some cases, and agricultural intensification in others. The (un)intended effects of policies are difficult to predict. Although some EU Policies directly improve landscape quality, their indirect effects as well as other EU policies outweigh this positive influence and jointly result in a decrease of landscape quality. To counter these negative side effects, targeted landscape policies are urgently needed.