Projected global mercury supply, demand, and excess to 2050 based on impacts of the Minamata Convention

Abstract

There is a crucial need to understand the outlook for changes in mercury supply and demand in response to the 2017 entry into force of the Minamata Convention on Mercury. If demand exceeds supply there will be a shortage, but if supply exceeds demand there will be excess mercury, and ultimately the need to prepare for the final disposal of elemental mercury. This study estimates global mercury supply and demand from 2010 to 2050, by region, and projects excess mercury based on recent trends and consideration of impacts of the Convention. The analysis notes a downward trend in both supply and demand, but the supply of mercury from primary mining has not decreased as much as initially expected, while mercury recovery from by-products of nonferrous production has not yet been implemented extensively. Under a business-as-usual projection, there is excess supply until a shortage appears around 2030, but a surplus returns after 2035, and there is a projected excess supply of 59 tons annually in 2050. Relying on the level of mercury recovery in the nonferrous sector, global cumulative stock of excess mercury is projected at 14,439–20,943 tons in 2050.