The Contribution of Microrefugia to Landscape Thermal Inertia for Climate-Adaptive Conservation Strategies

Abstract

Current temperatures in microrefugia may persist longer than in nearby areas as temperatures warm. However, locating and measuring the contribution of microrefugia to thermal inertia in a landscape is challenging. We measured the thermal buffering capacity of microrefugia across a 40,000 km2 region of complex mountain topography by quantifying environmental lapse rate and solar radiation effects on air temperature in 0.1 km2 hexagons, a resource management-relevant scale for climate adaptation. The greatest buffering capacity is −1.62°C, and only 2.8% of the region can buffer 1°C or greater. Historical loss of local cooling capacity is low, but by 2069 only 6.9%–11% of the region retains baseline temperature conditions. This thermal buffer index can find the most climate change-buffered areas in lands identified as high priority for habitat conservation, wildlife corridors, and forest preservation. Other processes such as cold air pooling can complement our approach but depend on additional factors.