Early Economic Evaluation to Identify the Necessary Test Characteristics of a New Typhoid Test to be Cost Effective in Ghana

Abstract

Background: In Ghana, there are issues with the diagnosis of typhoid fever; these include delays in diagnosis, concerns about the accuracy of current tests, and lack of availability. These issues highlight the need for the development of a rapid, accurate, and easily accessible diagnostic test. The aim of this study was to conduct an early economic analysis of a hypothetical rapid test for typhoid fever diagnosis in Ghana and identify the necessary characteristics of the test for it to be cost effective in Ghana. Methods: An early cost-utility analysis was conducted using a decision tree parameterized with secondary data sources, with reasonable assumptions made for unknown parameters. The patient population considered is individuals presenting with symptoms suggestive of typhoid fever at a healthcare facility in Ghana; a time horizon of 180 days and the Ghanaian national health service perspective were adopted for the analysis. Extensive sensitivity analysis was undertaken, including headroom analysis. Results: The results here show that for a hypothetical test to perform better than the existing test (Widal) in terms of QALYs gained and cost effectiveness, it is necessary for it to have a high specificity (at least 70%) and should not be priced more than US$4. The overall value of conducting research to reduce uncertainty (over 5 years) is US$3287. Conclusion: The analysis shows the potential for the hypothetical test to replace the Widal test and the market potential of developing a new test in the Ghanaian setting.