Using increasing hypothetical chronic wasting disease prevalence rates to explore hunter behavioral intention and hypothetical bias in surveys

Abstract

Deer hunter surveys commonly employ hypothetical chronic wasting disease (CWD) prevalence scenarios to measure behavioral intentions. These surveys may suffer from hypothetical bias (i.e. respondents describe unrealistic behaviors in hypothetical situations) and it is unclear how hypothetical bias affects results. We used an online-based survey of Arkansas deer hunters to (1) investigate how behavioral intentions change as CWD prevalence hypothetically varies, and (2) explore the presence of hypothetical bias in behavioral intention by comparing responses across hypothetical prevalence rates from those whose primary hunting counties had CWD detected versus not. We found undesired behaviors (e.g. hunting less often, hunting cessation) were unlikely to change substantially as prevalence increased, and assistance with some CWD monitoring and management behaviors may increase. We found some evidence of hypothetical bias in anticipated behavior change. Agencies should be aware that survey respondents may overstate behavioral intentions, and should consider this when making CWD management decisions.