Development and validation of three machine-learning models for predicting multiple organ failure in moderately severe and severe acute pancreatitis

Abstract

Background: Multiple organ failure (MOF) is a serious complication of moderately severe (MASP) and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). This study aimed to develop and assess three machine-learning-models to predict MOF. Methods: Patients with MSAP and SAP who were admitted from July 2014 to June 2017 were included. Firstly, parameters with significant differences between patients with MOF and without MOF were screened out by univariate analysis. Then, support vector machine (SVM), logistic regression analysis (LRA) and artificial neural networks (ANN) models were constructed based on these factors, and five-fold cross-validation was used to train each model. Results: A total of 263 patients were enrolled. Univariate analysis screened out sixteen parameters referring to blood volume, inflammatory, coagulation and renal function to construct machine-learning models. The predictive efficiency of the optimal combinations of features by SVM, LRA, and ANN was almost equal (AUC = 0.840, 0.832, and 0.834, respectively), as well as the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score (AUC = 0.814, P > 0.05). The common important predictive factors were HCT, K-time, IL-6 and creatinine in three models. Conclusions: Three machine-learning models can be efficient prognostic tools for predicting MOF in MSAP and SAP. ANN is recommended, which only needs four common parameters.