Predictive spatial modelling of landscape change in the Foothills Model Forest

Abstract

Modelling landscape change has been identified as one of the most significant challenges relevant to wildlife management and conservation, but many spatial tools are not well understood and there are few practical examples of their use. We present an approach to predictive spatial modelling to derive future landscape scenarios ranging from 0 to 100 years in the Foothills Model Forest. A basic input in modelling future landscapes is a land cover classification developed from satellite imagery; subsequent landscape changes are introduced with model subcomponents for forestry, fire, oil and gas exploration and development, natural succession, and vegetation growth (forest age). The resulting landscapes are used in wildlife management planning.