Modelagem matemática do controle de brucelose bovina por vacinação

Abstract

Due to the important role played by female bovines in the transmission and maintenance of brucellosis, they were the target of the serological surveys of the Brazilian National Program for the Control and Eradication of Bovine Brucellosis and Tuberculosis. Based on the information obtained in Brazilian states, where the serological surveys were carried out and prevalences higher than 2% were observed, a model to simulate the dynamics of brucellosis in herds of female bovines was developed to analyze the effects of vaccination strategies. For low vaccination coverage (around 30%), the time to reduce the prevalence to 2%, adopted as a reference, may be long, approximately twice as long as the time observed for a higher coverage (90%). According to the model, the time to reduce the prevalence to levels of 1% or 2%, adequate to start the eradication phase, may reach a decade. It is recommended an intensification of the effort to vaccinate females, aiming at attaining high vaccination coverage.