The Need for Multi-Century Projections of Sea Level Rise

Abstract

The latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provided scenario-based local sea level projections to 2150 and characterized the long-term committed global mean sea level rise on 2,000- and 10,000-year time horizons associated with peak surface warming levels. Turner et al. build on the scientific assessment of the IPCC to provide time-continuous projections of future sea level rise to 2500. These projections fill an important knowledge gap to help inform coastal decision-making processes and more fully quantify the benefits of mitigation actions in terms of limiting future sea level rise. However, limited understanding of ice instability processes remains a key scientific challenge and improved observational and modeling capability are critical to reducing uncertainties and monitoring the trajectory of observed change.