Investigating the Impact of Geopolitical Tensions on Oil and Gas Prices: Strategies For Mitigating Their Effects

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic variables, and market volatility on oil and gas prices across two distinct periods: 1990–2023 and 2009–2023. Employing econometric techniques, the studies assess whether changes in some factors including Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), Dollar Index (DXY), Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX), Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as well as Annual Inflation rates influence energy prices. It was discovered that inflation and DXY contribute effectively in the energy prices while GPR plays a more complex role mainly since it is affected by the market exposure. The modern period (2009–2023) has greater explanatory capability; it coincides with structural changes in energy markets such as financialization and speculation. The diagnostic tests provide evidence in support of the models, and thus the policy prescriptions are to control inflation and exchange rate volatility and to secure supply chains for energy around the globe in the face of political tensions. In so doing, this study enhances knowledge about the energy market’s structure by encompassing both long-term and modern visions while providing policy implications for the improvement of energy market efficiency.