Multi-parameters uncertainty analysis of logistic support process based on GERT

Abstract

The uncertainty analysis is an effective sensitivity analysis method for system model analysis and optimization. However, the existing single-factor uncertainty analysis methods are not well used in the logistic support systems with multiple decision-making factors. The multiple transfer parameters graphical evaluation and review technique (MTP-GERT) is used to model the logistic support process in consideration of two important factors, support activity time and support activity resources, which are two primary causes for the logistic support process uncertainty. On this basis, a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) method based on covariance is designed to analyze the logistic support process uncertainty. The aircraft support process is selected as a case application which illustrates the validity of the proposed method to analyze the support process uncertainty, and some feasible recommendations are proposed for aircraft support decision making on carrier.