Urban and Peri-urban Population Dynamics in Case Study Cities within Europe

Abstract

This article deals with population dynamics in chosen European locations with different age structures, future expected growth developments and urbanization prospects. The case study approach was chosen in order to depict spatially relevant details and characteristics of a small region with an urban core. The populations are subjected to a set of four possible futures, which are called scenarios. The demographics of each are different, and these variations are shown by means of population projections. The results show that in Koper, Slovenia and the Warsaw region, Poland the cities undergo dynamics that is very sensitive to the age structure of the population, future fertility, mortality and international migration prospects. The degree of urbanization further depends on local movement of population, which can be muffled by daily work-migration. Data availability on the local level is proven to be a challenge for detailed demographic studies, as is future uncertainty with respect to migration, be it local or international. Despite the uncertainties in the future levels of migration, it can be seen that age-structure and current low fertility levels have a long-standing impact on the demography of a region.