Oropouche virus outbreaks in northeast Brazil between 2024-25 are characterized by sustained transmission and spread to newly affected areas

Abstract

Oropouche virus (OROV) has recently expanded in Brazil, establishing transmission in non-endemic regions. This study aims to integrate epidemiological and molecular data to investigate OROV spread in Northeast (NE) Brazil between 2024 and 2025. OROV cases were analyzed regarding ecological risk factors and geographical clustering. Additionally, we sequenced 65 new OROV genomes from the Northeast states of Pernambuco, Paraíba, and Sergipe to infer the virus's spatiotemporal dynamics in NE Brazil. A total of 2,806 confirmed cases were reported between March 2024 and April 2025, affecting 170 municipalities across eight out of nine NE states, with highly heterogeneous incidence. An ecological shift was observed, with OROV transmission moving from Atlantic Forest areas in 2024 to humid Caatinga zones in 2025. Phylogenetic reconstruction revealed multiple independent viral introductions in Northeast in 2024, including two in Pernambuco. The first, originating from the central Amazonas, became the main driver of local transmission and subsequently spread to Sergipe and Paraíba, causing outbreaks in 2024 and 2025, respectively. The second introduction remained restricted within Pernambuco. While several Northeast municipalities reported high OROV incidence, Jaqueira (Pernambuco) emerged as a key hub for regional viral spread. OROV showed sustained transmission in the region over a two-year period, characterized by marked spatiotemporal displacement consistent with short-lived, rapidly spreading outbreaks, followed by cryptic transmission and subsequent dissemination to new areas, ultimately driving renewed intense outbreaks.