Trends in tuberculosis notification and mortality and factors associated with treatment outcomes in Serbia, 2005 to 2015

Abstract

Background: Previously a country with medium tuberculosis (TB) burden, Serbia almost reached a low TB burden during the period 2005 to 2015. Aim: The aim of this study was to analyse the trends in notification rates and treatment success rates as well as to identify predictors of treatment outcomes. Methods: We performed a trend analysis and logistic regression analysis of 17,441 TB cases registered from 2005 to 2015 in all health facilities in Serbia, to identify predictors of treatment success, loss to follow-up and mortality. Results: From 2005 to 2015, TB notification rate and mortality in Serbia decreased but treatment success remained below the global target. Loss to follow-up was associated with retreatment (odds ratio (OR) = 2.38; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.08-2.77), male sex (OR = 1.57; 95% CI: 1.39-1.79), age younger than 65 years (OR = 1.37; 95% CI: 1.20-1.51), lower education level (OR = 2.57; 95% CI: 1.74-3.80) and pulmonary TB (OR = 1.28; 95% CI: 1.06-1.56). Deaths were more frequent in retreatment cases (OR = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.12-1.61), male patients (OR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.19-1.52), those 65 years and older (OR = 4.34; 95% CI: 4.00-5.00), those with lower education level (OR = 1.63; 95% CI: 1.14-2.33) and pulmonary TB (OR = 2.24; 95% CI: 1.78-2.83). Conclusions: Special interventions should be implemented to address groups at risk of poor treatment outcome.