Maximum likelihood estimation of dynamic panel threshold models

Abstract

Threshold estimation methods are developed for dynamic panels with individual specific fixed effects covering short time periods. Maximum likelihood estimation of the threshold and slope parameters is proposed using first difference transformations. Threshold estimate is shown to be consistent and its asymptotic distribution is nonstandard when the number of individuals grows to infinity for a fixed time period; the slope estimates are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. The method is applied to a sample of 74 countries and 11 periods of 5-year averages to determine the effect of inflation rate on long-run economic growth.