Using AHP and PROMETHEE Multicriteria Decision-Making Approaches to Rank Available Fruit Crops for Orchard Expansion in Nangarhar, Afghanistan

Abstract

Fruit production is a significant contributor to the Afghan economy’s gross domestic product and earnings. However, Afghan farmers often receive low profits from fruit cultivation, which various factors can influence. One of the critical issues is the absence of published literature to aid stakeholders and farmers in selecting appropriate fruit types during orchard establishment. Therefore, this study aimed to rank five perennial fruit species (peach, persimmon, lemon, sweet and sour oranges) considered suitable for expanding the fruit industry in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) combined with Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE) approaches were employed to outrank the five alternatives (fruits) by a panel of seven local fruit experts. The ranking criteria for the fruits were yield rate, water requirement, productive lifespan, shelf life, early bearing, postharvest management cost, market value, net income, and consumer preference. The results indicated that sweet orange was the top-ranked fruit, followed by lemon, peach, persimmon, and sour orange. The net income was the most significant feature that positively contributed to the net flow (the balance between the positive and the negative outranking flows) score of sweet orange, lemon, and peach, considered innovative fruit species suitable for commercial orchards in national and foreign markets. However, for persimmon and sour orange, two fruit species traditionally grown in the area mainly for local and domestic consumption, net income was the main feature that negatively contributed to their net flow score. The net flow score of the alternatives did not change considerably when the criteria weight was assumed to be the same in the sensitivity analysis test, except for peach, which obtained the greatest negative score in the net flow. The outcomes can assist local farmers, professionals, and, more particularly, public stakeholders in choosing the most appropriate fruit type for the future of Nangarhar fruticulture.