Equity Valuation

Abstract

We review and critically examine the standard approach to equity val- uation using a constant risk-adjusted cost of capital, and we develop a new valuation approach discounting risk-adjusted fundamentals, such as expected free cash flows and residual operating income, using nom- inal zero-coupon interest rates. We show that standard estimates of the cost of capital, based on historical stock returns, are likely to be a significantly biased measure of the firm’s cost of capital, but also that the bias is almost impossible to quantify empirically. The new approach recognizes that, in practice, interest rates, expected equity returns, and inflation rates are all stochastic.We explicitly characterize the risk-adjustments to the fundamentals in an equilibrium setting.We show how the term structure of risk-adjustments depends on both the time-series properties of the free cash flows and the accounting policy. Growth, persistence, and mean reversion of residual operating income created by competition in the product markets or by the accounting policy are key determinants of the term structure of risk-adjustments.