Economic losses analysis due to the impact of climate change on the health sector in Indonesia

Abstract

Changes in environmental conditions due to climate change have the potential to change the pattern of disease spread and reduce the degree of human health. Health is a human right and a vital factor for human activity. Indirectly, health plays an important role in supporting economic activity and national development. This study aims to analyze the potential economic losses to the health sector due to climate change. The economic impact is calculated from losses through increasing the prevalence of climate sensitive diseases in the future, including dengue fever, malaria, diarrhea, and pneumonia. The distribution of diseases based on climatic factors is used to estimate the total prevalence. The number of disease prevalence was obtained by sensitivity analysis which was adjusted to the results of the RCP 4.5 CSIRO and MIROC models. The results showed that the impact of climate change on climate sensitive diseases has the potential to affect Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 0.1% or equivalent to Rp. 7.6 trillion. Climate change is projected to trigger disasters more frequently, thus increasing health losses by up to 1.8% of Indonesia's national GDP. Strengthening climate change adaptation action in the health sector needs more attention to reduce these losses