A Novel Nomogram to Predict Survival in Patients With Recurrence of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma After Radical Resection

Abstract

The post-progression survival (PPS) of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) after radical resection is varied and influenced by the characteristics of tumor progression. We aimed to establish and validate a nomogram to predict PPS for PDAC patients after surgery. A total of 302 PDAC patients who had undergone curative resection from 2008 to 2018 were enrolled in this study and randomly divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 3:1. The nomogram was established based on independent prognostic factors selected by LASSO and Cox regression and measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the concordance index (C-index). Significant prognostic factors included carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), lymph node (LN)9 metastasis, LN14 metastasis, LN16 metastasis, tumor differentiation, imaging-detected tumor size, local progression, liver-only metastasis, lung-only metastasis, and multiple metastases. The nomogram built on these factors showed powerful efficacy in PPS prediction, with C-index values of 0.751 (95% CI 0.692–0.0.810) and 0.710 (95% CI 0.645–0.755) for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The AUC values for the 1-year and 2-year PSS rates were 0.745, 0.747, and 0.783, 0.748, respectively; these values were higher than those of the 8th tumor–node–metastasis (TNM) stage system. The exploration of risk factors and the establishment of a nomogram can provide new versions of personalized recurrence management for PDAC patients after surgery.