No Evidence that Banning the Purchase of Sex Increases Rape: A Replication Study of Ciacci (2024, 2025)

Abstract

We re-analyze two research articles with results showing that Sweden’s criminalization of purchasing sex triggered a large increase in rape. Our analysis documents discrepancies that produce unreliable results in five identification strategies in the first paper (Ciacci, 2024), and in all specifications indicating a large reform effect in the other (Ciacci, 2025). These discrepancies include estimating different statistical relationships, using different methods, or employing different variables than the paper describes. Correcting them by implementing the analysis described in the text yields no evidence that the Swedish reform increased rape.