Análise do perigo de incêndios florestais em um município da Amazônia Mato-Grossense, Brasil

Abstract

The aim of this paper were to establish fire season as well as to propose proceedings in order to reduce fire risk, specifically at "Novo Mundo" county, located in "Mato Grosso" State, Brazil. A forest fire forecast methodology was applied to reach the proposed objectives. The research was carried out along 2000-2005. Fire danger was daily calculated using Monte Alegre Formula, and the results were graphically represented through the A.M.A.D.O. software. The statistics had been developed using Statgraphics Centurion XV program, and applying the methodology proposed by Box and Jenkins (1976). Furthermore, some actions to reduce fire risk had been suggested. Results points to May, June, July and August as the most critical months regarding fire risk, mainly due to the rain shortage along the period. The mitigation measures proposed in this work are easy to implement and could be carried out by county authorities and local community, leading to improvement of forest fire control in the county or even the whole region.