When should we intervene to control the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic?

Abstract

We simulated the early phase of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic and assessed the effectiveness of public health interventions in Japan. We show that the detection rate of border quarantine was low and the timing of the intervention was the most important factor involved in the control of the pandemic, with the maximum reduction in daily cases obtained after interventions started on day 6 or 11. Early interventions were not always effective.