Accuracy and precision in the calculation of phenology metrics

Abstract

Phytoplankton phenology (the timing of seasonal events) is a commonly used indicator for evaluating responses of marine ecosystems to climate change. However, phenological metrics are vulnerable to observation-(bloom amplitude, missing data, and observational noise) and analysis-related (temporal resolution, preprocessing technique, and phenology metric) processes. Here we consider the impact of these processes on the robustness of four phenology metrics (timing of maximum, 5% above median, maximum growth rate, and 15% of cumulative distribution). We apply a simulation-testing approach, where a phenology metric is first determined from a noise- and gap-free time series, and again once it has been modified. We show that precision is a greater concern than accuracy for many of these metrics, an important point that has been hereto overlooked in the literature. The variability in precision between phenology metrics is substantial, but it can be improved by the use of preprocessing techniques (e.g., gap-filling or smoothing). Furthermore, there are important differences in the inherent variability of the metrics that may be crucial in the interpretation of studies based upon them. Of the considered metrics, the 15% of cumulative distribution metric best satisfies the precision criteria. However, the 5% above median metric is comparable in terms of precision and exhibits more inherent variability. We emphasize that the choice of phenology metric should be determined by the specific nature of the question being asked. We believe these findings to be useful to the current discussion on phenology metrics of phytoplankton dynamics.