Comparison of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimates From Slab Ocean, 150-Year, and Longer Simulations

Abstract

We compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (≥800-year) control and abruptly quadrupled CO2 simulations with shorter (150- and 300-year) coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations and slab ocean models (SOMs). Consistent with previous work, ECS estimates from shorter coupled simulations based on annual averages for years 1–150 underestimate those from SOM (−8% ± 13%) and long (−14% ± 8%) simulations. Analysis of only years 21–150 improved agreement with SOM (−2% ± 14%) and long (−8% ± 10%) estimates. Use of pentadal averages for years 51–150 results in improved agreement with long simulations (−4% ± 11%). While ECS estimates from current generation U.S. models based on SOM and coupled annual averages of years 1–150 range from 2.6°C to 5.3°C, estimates based longer simulations of the same models range from 3.2°C to 7.0°C. Such variations between methods argues for caution in comparison and interpretation of ECS estimates across models.