Peculiarities of Lake Baikal water level regime

Abstract

A 15-year-old low-water period in the basin of Lake Baikal established an endurance record in the entire history of observations. It began in the mid 90s of the last century. With some probability it may continue in the following years. An analysis of meteorological series of air temperature and precipitation in the region is conducted. A statistically significant trend of increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall is revealed. Atmospheric precipitation affects the long-term fluctuations in the river run-off to a greater extent than the other elements of the water balance. An analysis of the inflow of water into Lake Baikal is performed. It is found that the water level of the lake almost directly depends on the water content of the Selenga River. The minimal run-off in dry periods, as well as the annual run-off, tends to decrease. It is a continuous series of low run-off, which provided the negative trend in the minimal run-off. A dendrochronological reconstruction of the Selenga River run-off is made. A statistically significant trend of decreasing Selenga River run-off is revealed in the recent decades, and an analysis of temperature and precipitation for the basin on the Russian side is made.