Scenario-Driven Methodology for Cascading Disasters Risk Assessment of Earthquake on Chemical Industrial Park

Abstract

With the increase in industrial accidents induced by natural disasters, the study of earthquake risk assessment has been widely considered by scholars. However, the cascade evolution of Natech (natural–technological) disasters has not been thoroughly studied, especially in chemical parks with complex technological processes. From the perspective of scenario deduction, combined with cross-impact analysis and a damping interpretation structural model, this paper analyzes the evolution process of cascade disaster in a chemical industrial park after the Wenchuan earthquake. At the same time, a visual network risk assessment model is constructed to identify the impact of earthquake cascade disasters on the park. The simulation results show that the scenario-driven risk assessment method proposed in this paper can directly reflect the coupling relationship and propagation path among the derived events and realize dynamic, intuitive and structured disaster expression to deal with the earthquake Natech (natural–technological) disaster scenario effectively and quickly.