CMIP5-Based Wave Energy Projection: Case Studies of the South China Sea and the East China Sea

Abstract

Wave energy development will help ease resource crises. The projection of wave energy has practical value for the long-term planning of energy development (implementation of power generation, trading strategies, and so on). This paper proposed a wave energy projection program. South China Sea (SCS) and the East China Sea (ECS) in 2019 were carried out as case studies using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) dataset to drive the WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) wave model. The multiyear average wave energy of the SCS and ECS was presented. A comparison of the projected values with multiyear averages of the wave energy could positively contribute to the planning of the wave energy development. The results show that the SCS possessed relatively rich energy for both the past and future and that January and October possessed the highest wave power density (WPD). The projected annual average WPD in 2019 was similar to the multiyear average WPD in the north and middle of the ECS, slightly higher than the multiyear average in the south of the ECS, and considerably greater than that in the SCS. The projected WPDs in January, April, and October 2019 were higher than the multiyear averages in the corresponding months. In July, the projected WPD in the SCS was smaller than the multiyear average, while the opposite was observed in the south of the ECS. The projected effective wave height occurrence (EWHO) and the occurrence of WPD >2 kW/m in 2019 were also superior to the multiyear average values.