A novel model based on DA-RNN network and skip gated recurrent neural network for periodic time series forecasting

Abstract

Deep learning models are playing an increasingly important role in time series forecasting with their excellent predictive ability and the convenience of not requiring complex feature engineer-ing. However, the existing deep learning models still have shortcomings in dealing with periodic and long-distance dependent sequences, which lead to unsatisfactory forecasting performance on this type of dataset. To handle these two issues better, this paper proposes a novel periodic time series forecasting model based on DA-RNN, called DA-SKIP. Using the idea of task decomposition, the novel model, based on DA-RNN, GRU-SKIP and autoregressive component, breaks down the prediction of periodic time series into three parts: linear forecasting, nonlinear forecasting and periodic forecasting. The results of the experiments on Solar Energy, Electricity Consumption and Air Quality datasets show that the proposed model outperforms the three comparison models in capturing periodicity and long-distance dependence features of sequences.