The relationship between near-repeat street robbery and the environment: Evidence from malmö, Sweden

Abstract

Near-repeat crime refers to a pattern whereby one crime event is soon followed by a similar crime event at a nearby location. Existing research on near-repeat crime patterns is inconclusive about where near-repeat patterns emerge and which physical and social factors influence them. The present research addressed this gap by examining the relationship between initiator events (i.e., the first event in a near-repeat pattern) and environmental characteristics to estimate where near-repeat patterns are most likely to emerge. A two-step analysis was undertaken using data on street robberies reported in Malmö, Sweden, for the years 2006-15. After determining near-repeat patterns, we assessed the correlations between initiator events and criminogenic places and socioeconomic indicators using a negative binomial regression at a street segment level. Our results show that both criminogenic places and socioeconomic indicators have a significant influence on the spatial variation of initiator events, suggesting that environmental characteristics can be used to explain the emergence of near-repeat patterns. Law enforcement agencies can utilize the findings in efforts to prevent further street robberies from occurring.