Are there lane advantages in track and field?

Abstract

Shorter distance events in track and field are replete with folk tales about which lane assignments on the track are advantageous. Estimating the causal effect of lane assignments on race times is a difficult task as lane assignments are typically non-random. To estimate these effects I exploit a random assignment rule for the first round of races in short distance events. Using twenty years of data from the IAAF world athletic championships and U20 world championships, there is no evidence of lane advantages in the 100m. Contrary to popular belief, the data suggest that outside lanes in the 200m and 400m produce faster race times. In the 800m, which is unique in having a lane break, there is some weak evidence that outside lanes producer slower race times, possibly reflecting the advantage of inside lanes having an established position on the track at the lane break. Given that these results do not support common convictions on lane advantages, they also serve as an interesting case study on false beliefs.