Shifting sands: the geopolitical impact of climate change on Africa’s resource conflicts

Abstract

This study examines the complex relationships among climate change, resource scarcity, and conflict in Africa, focusing on the regions of Darfur, Lake Chad, and South Sudan. This highlights how climate change is a threat multiplier, intensifying socio-political challenges and worsening competition over vital resources such as water and arable land. Through a comparative analysis of these regions, this paper explores how environmental degradation, combined with weak governance and ethnic tensions, has led to conflict. In Darfur, prolonged droughts and desertification have exacerbated competition between herders and farmers. At the same time, in the Lake Chad Basin, the drastic shrinking of the lake has created fertile ground for extremist groups, including Boko Haram. In South Sudan, the impacts of erratic rainfall and water scarcity have contributed to ongoing civil conflict. This paper emphasizes the importance of addressing these climate-driven conflicts through better governance, climate adaptation, and resource management. Ultimately, this study contributes to the broader understanding of how climate change exacerbates conflict in vulnerable regions and underscores the need for coordinated international efforts to mitigate these impacts.