Analysis of Potential Disruptions from Earthquakes in Istanbul and 3D Model Based Risk Communication

Abstract

Making cities disaster resilient is important as proven by the increased number of city networks such as 100 Resilient Cities. The major difficulty on this trajectory is the interrelated components in urban systems that influence each other and increase uncertainty in risk assessment and management. Therefore, this study analyses the potential road blockages that impact traffic control using a multi-hazard risk assessment for the historical peninsula of Istanbul, Turkey. To support the communication of the causes of such potential disruptions, a 3D city model is created for the visualisation and analysis of the consequences from a disaster. For the socioeconomic, physical and systemic vulnerability and risk assessments, the additive normalization indicator-based approach is used. Besides, to determine the building vulnerability and damage grades, the EMS-98 Macroseismic method is applied. This study found that the socioeconomic vulnerability is high to very high which could contribute to emergent behaviour causing traffic congestions and communication issues. In addition, most buildings have been determined to be ‘very heavily damaged’. Consequently, there is high risk for road blockages in the narrow streets within the case study area, while the roads themselves have low risk to damage. The usage of 3D modelling techniques for visualisation and analysis improves understandability, visual problem identification and support decision making for mitigation strategies in case of road blockages.