Expected impacts of climate change on forests Czech Republic as a case study

Abstract

We provide fundamental information about the future development of selected climate elements in relation to anticipated threat to forests in the Czech Republic. All analyses were carried out in relation to four elevationzones with specific potential forest vegetation - up to 350 m a.s.l.(oak dominance), 350-600 m a.s.l.(beech dominance), 600-900 m a.s.l. (beech-fir dominance), 900-1,100 m a.s.l. (spruce dominance).We found out that while theprojected increase in mean annual air temperature is almost constant overthe Czech Republic (+3.25-3.5°C in the distant future), the frequency ofheat spells at lower elevations is expected to increase dramatically comparedto higher elevations. The precipitation totals during the vegetation seasonare projected to increase in the near future by up to 10% and to decreaseinthe distant future by up to 10% over all vegetation zones. In gener, drought is presumed to become a key limiting factor at lower elevations, whileincreased temperature along with the prolonged vegetation season at higher elevations can be beneficial to forest vegetation. Consequently, northward progression of forest tree species and retraction of the species lower distribution range are a generic response pattern. Such impacts are presumedtobe accompanied by changes in the distribution and population dynamics of pests and pathogens. Mainly the impacts on two key forest pests, Ips typographus and Lymantria dispar, are discussed.