Quantitative Risk Analysis for Oil and Gas Projects: A Case Study

Abstract

Delays have been identified as one of the significant risks in oil and gas projects. A sound risk analysis is, therefore, one of the critical factors for the success of the projects. The aim of this research was to measure the impact of delay risks on the completion time of an oil and gas project in Indonesia as a case study. Data of relevant delay risks were initially collected from literature reviews and observations on project documents and finalized through interviews with key respondents of the project. A monte-carlo based simulation software was used to simulate 28 delay risks identified and applied to the 34 project activities. This research found a probability of less than 1% for on-time project completion according to the baseline schedule (366 days). It was also projected that the project duration could be extended by 10.6% (405 days) and 14.2% (418 days) with 50% and 80% probabilities, respectively. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential activity on project delays was the tubular delivery, and the risk delay with the most significant impact to project delays was the delay of long-lead item delivery. This research showed the mechanism of incorporating delay risks into relevant project activities, and the findings allow a better understanding of stakeholders to develop appropriate risk mitigation strategies.