Interplate Coupling and Seismic Potential in the Atacama Seismic Gap (Chile): Dismissing a Rigid Andean Sliver

Abstract

Geodetically constrained interseismic interplate coupling has been widely used to assess seismic potential in subduction zones. Modeling interseismic deformation is challenging, as it involves interplate coupling and often ignores continental internal deformation processes. We present a novel methodology to jointly estimate interplate coupling along with upper plate rigid motion and surface strain, constrained by GNSS-derived velocities. We use a least squares inversion with a spatially variable Equal Posterior Information Condition Tikhonov regularization, accounting for observational and elastic structure uncertainties. Our modeling reveals three megathrust regions with high tsunamigenic earthquake potential located within the Atacama Seismic Gap (Chile). This study indicates the presence of a downdip segmentation located just above the 1995 (Mw8.0) Antofagasta earthquake rupture, raising concerns for the potential of tsunamigenic earthquake occurrence at shallower depths. Additionally, we show that surface motion is dominated by strain, with rather negligible rigid motion, dismissing the rigid Andean microplate model typically assumed in previous studies.