Multispecies population-scale emergence of climate change signals in an ocean warming hotspot

Abstract

Ocean waters of the Northeast US continental shelf have warmed rapidly in recent years, with sea surface temperatures rising 2.5 times faster than those of the global oceans. With this strong warming trend, the frequency and duration of marine heatwaves have increased. These temperature changes stood out as a distinct warm temperature regime during the 2010s. During this decade, fish population characteristics also differed from the past. Species distribution shifts were detected for many species, demonstrating one way species could adapt to warming conditions. However, for most species, distribution shifts were insufficient to avoid warmer surface or bottom temperatures. As species occupied warmer habitats, growth patterns aligned with expectations for warming temperatures. Consistent with the temperature-size rule, some species exhibited faster growth at early life stages but plateaued at smaller body sizes; other species, however, experienced reduced growth across all ages, indicating thermal stress. Finally, population productivity indexed by the recruit-to-spawner ratio declined significantly during the 2010s for some populations. Changes in these three processes—distribution, growth, and productivity—indicate the emergence of climate change signals across multiple Northeast US fish populations. These effects create new challenges for fishery managers and industry participants operating in the context of non-stationarity and uncertainty.