Water demand prediction using machine learning methods: A case study of the beijing–tianjin–hebei region in china

Abstract

Predicting water demand helps decision-makers allocate regional water resources efficiently, thereby preventing water waste and shortage. The aim of this study is to predict water demand in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of North China. The explanatory variables associated with economy, community, water use, and resource availability were identified. Eleven statistical and machine learning models were built, which used data covering the 2004–2019 period. Interpolation and extrapolation scenarios were conducted to find the most suitable predictive model. The results suggest that the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) model demonstrates the best prediction performance in the two scenarios. The model was further tested for three other regions in China, and its robustness was validated. The water demand in 2020–2021 was provided. The results show that the identified explanatory variables were effective in water demand prediction. The machine learning models outperformed the statistical models, with the ensemble models being superior to the single predictor models. The best predictive model can also be applied to other regions to help forecast water demand to ensure sustainable water resource management.